The past two years, the National East has been the most exciting divisions in all of baseball. Just like the past two years, the outcome of this division won't be decided until the final week of the regular season.
The Philadelphia Phillies believe they are the team to beat, while the New York Mets believe that they're the team to beat. I agree with the New York Mets. Here are my NL East predictions.
1) New York Mets 92-70
I'm going to be honest with you, this is the third straight year that I have picked the Mets to win the NL East. I've obviously been wrong the past two years, but I think that will change in 2009.
The Mets starting rotation is led by the best starting pitcher in the NL East, and arguably the best starting pitcher in the National League.
Johan Santana finished the 2008 season with a 16-7 record and a 2.53 ERA. If not for a horrible bullpen, Santana would've won 20 games.
Mike Pelfrey will be the Mets number two starter. The 25-year old Pelfrey is coming off his best year. Pelfrey racked up 200 innings going 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA.
The number three and four spots will go to Oliver Perez and John Maine, Perez and Maine combined for 20 wins in 2008. Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, and Livan Hernandez will battle it out for the No. 5 spot.
The Mets bullpen appears to be much improved. New York welcomes Francisco Rodriguez and his 62 saves. The Mets also acquired JJ Putz from Mariners. Putz recorded 28 saves in 2008, but he will be the Mets setup man.
The Mets offense is expected to score a lot of runs. Jose Reyes will be at the top of the order. Reyes batted .297 with 56 stolen bases and 16 home runs in 2008.
Carlos Beltran is back patrolling center, but left field and right field appear to be questions marks for the Mets.
Despite the Mets having another question mark at second, The corner infielders are anything but a question mark. Thee corners belong to David Wright and Carlos Delgado. They combined for 71 home runs and 239 RBI in 2008.
2) Philadelphia Phillies 90-72
The Phillies are trying to become the first team since the New York Yankees to win back to World Championships. I just don't see it happening.
It's hard to not like Cole Hammels, but after Hammels the Phillies lack starting pitching depth. Jamie Moyer is coming off his best year since 2003. The 46-year old went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA. I think this is the year where age catches up to Moyer.
Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, and Kyle Kendrick make up the rest of the Phillies rotation. All three have an ERA well over four.
The Phillies pen will miss their left-handed specialist JC Romero. Romero will miss the first 50-games for failing a drug test. Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge return to make up a very strong back end of the pen.
The Phillies offense is once again arguably the strongest in the league. The World Champions made just one move. Gone is long time Phillie Pat Burrell and his 33 home runs. In is Raul Ibanez and his 23 home runs.
3) Atlanta Braves 85-77
The Braves are much improved this year, but they still find themselves behind the Phillies and Mets.
The Atlanta Braves added 26 wins to their rotations. The biggest addition for the Braves was the signing of Derek Lowe. The 35-year old Lowe is coming off another solid solid season where he had and ERA of 3.24 while pitching 211 innings.
The Braves also added 12 game winner Javier Vazquez.
The Braves also added Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami was the 2004 Central League MVP. Future Hall of Famer Tom Glavin will also return to the Braves.
The most important thing for the Braves bullpen is the health of Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez will be asked to close for the Braves. If Gonzo can't stay healthy, the Braves will find themselves in a similar situation as they were last year.
The Braves offense received a boost with the signing of Garret Anderson. The three-time all start hit .293 with 15 home runs in 2008. Anderson will play left, with Jeff Francoeur in right. Josh Anderson appears to be the front runner in center.
The Braves have a very strong infield. Chipper Jones hit .364 in 2008 but he once again battled injuries. Yunel Escobar is back at short, and Kelly Johsnon is at second. Case Kotchman who was acquired in the Teixeira trade is back at first and Brian Mccann is back behind the plate.
4) Florida Marlins 84-78
The Florida Marlins surprised a lot of people in 2008 with a 84-77 record. I don't see them catching to many people off guard in 2009.
The Florida Marlins have one of the most underrated starting rotations. Rick Nolasco led the Marlins rotation in 2008 with a 15-8 record. Nolasco struck out 186 in 212 innings.
Josh Johnson returned from injury in 2008 and was outstanding going 7-1. Rookie Chris Volstad had a solid rookie season going 6-4 in 2008. The No. 4 and 5 spot is up in the air for the Marlins. Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez appear to be front runners.
The lack of bullpen depth could cause issues for the Marlins. Matt Lindstrom appears to be the front runner to replace Kevin Gregg as closer.
The Marlins offense is led by Hanley Ramirez. The 25-year old Ramirez is one of the best young players in the game. Ramirez is a 30-30 guy. He hit 33 home runs with 35 stolen bases and a .301 average in 2008.
Due to the Marlins lack of run producers, Ramirez will be asked to move out of the lead off spot, and will likely bat third for the Marlins.
5) Washington Nationals 70-92
I am going to be blunt, I don't see much changing with the Washington Nationals in 2009.
While Odalis Perez holds out, John Lannan appears to be a pretty solid prospect. The 24-year old Lannan had a very solid rookie season going 9-15 with a very respectable 3.91 ERA.
The Nationals big free agent pickup was Adam Dunn. If nothing else, Nationals fans will get a chance to watch one of the most powerful hitters in the game. Dunn is coming off another 40 home run season, and will likely have another big year. The same can't be said for the Nats, they will once again struggle in 2009.
February 23, 2009
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies Look To Repeat
Originally published at: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/128233-nl-east-phillies-look-to-repeat
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